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Visa fullständig version : What happens if Piratpartiet gets 30 % of the votes?


tg
2006-06-28, 18:02
I am looking at the present figures on demokrati.nu (http://demokrati.nu/) where PP is presently the leading party with 32.3 % of the votes. I understand this result reflects more popularity among Internet-savvy Swedes than among the entire population but I would still like to know the practical consequencies in case PP would get say 30 % or even just 20 % of the votes in the September election. If I have understood correctly you have 22 official candidates, but 30 % of the votes would entitle you to well over 100 seats in the Parliament. Would the 'excess' votes go actually wasted or is there still a chance for the party to assign more candidates?

Björn Felten
2006-06-28, 18:23
No, we have 22 names on the common list, used for those regions that don't have regional lists. All together I seem to recall that we have a total of 142 different names on all lists. But at the moment the result on demokrati.nu would give us 139 seats, so we are slowly reaching our limit. :)

tg
2006-06-28, 19:32
Thanks, Björn! I'm glad to hear that you have more 'popularity capacity' than what I assumed. With 139 seats you would already be a bit more than a 'vågmästar' I think... I would love to see the faces of the leaders of the established Swedish parties after such an election result... :D

SM5POR
2006-06-30, 06:51
Björn Felten (2006-Jun-28)No, we have 22 names on the common list, used for those regions that don't have regional lists. All together I seem to recall that we have a total of 142 different names on all lists. But at the moment the result on demokrati.nu would give us 139 seats, so we are slowly reaching our limit.

To be exact, there are 122 different candidates nominated by the party. As they are meant to represent the constituencies where they have been nominated, a major success for the party in the election may result in individual constituencies running out of names to fill the seats awarded to them. However, as a last-resort procedure, the Election Act provides for assigning candidates to seats in constituencies other than those they have been nominated for, so the party will not risk being left with empty seats in any constituency until each and everyone of those 122 candidates have been used up.



But seriously, that demokrati.nu poll has nothing to do with reality; it just provides numbers for thought experiments like this one. I think the likelyhood of the Pirate Party achieving even 50 percent of the votes on election day is greater than that of demokrati.nu being an indication of a current trend! Stop looking at those imaginary numbers, and they will go away.

Björn Felten
2006-06-30, 07:19
tg (2006-Jun-28)I would love to see the faces of the leaders of the established Swedish parties after such an election result... :D

Ah yes, that really would be something to see. Especially the faces of the four parties, now in the parliament, that wouldn't even make it (they are below the 4% limit needed to be passed to get in). The seven parties to the left are those that are represented in parliament now, in case you didn't know.



As you quite correctly pointed out, this is the result from only the internet savvy people voting, and some of the votes may even come from people that are not allowed to vote in the election, so it is by no way representativ for the popular will of the Swedish voters. But, like Anders said, it's good stuff to make dreams about -- until reality comes knocking on the door. :P

Axx0
2006-06-30, 12:02
It would really be a fun thing to do, create a coalition of other parties (these to the right) and totally block out the left side.



Not going to happen though :crying:

gustafsd
2006-06-30, 12:25
I really dont think it would be that fun joining with Sverigedemokraterna. First of all their goals are straight out contradictory to our goals. We want to let culture fly free while they want to spoonfeed us with "our swedish culture!" and i dare say they are at least as much, if not more, into surveilance as bodström and the others. How else are they goning to make sure "our swedish culture" doesn´t get contaminated (god forbid).



Secondly it would be political suicide to join with sverigedemokraterna. Everyone i know who votes blank does so to make sure they dont get into parliament

Nicklas W Bjurman
2006-06-30, 14:25
Om samarbete med SD skulle vara möjligt(De kommer in i riksdagen). Eftersom dom är så mot våra principer ser jag ett samarbete ifrån deras sida att ge vika till våra mål som högst osannolikt. Men om de accepterar våran ställnig och vill göra som vi då är samarbete möjligt.

tg
2006-06-30, 15:35
Well, imaginary or non-representative as it may be, the IDG Weekly Poll (http://www.idg.se/globalincludes/applikationer/veckans_fraga/showhistoryresult.asp?id=1876) indicates also nice support for Piratpartiet. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a big surprise. This is the first time the issue of legal filesharing has been politicized, and there is no precedent anywhere on how a huge population of tech-savvy filesharers will vote when given a political pro-p2p alternative. I suppose even a 10 % national support would be quite a political bomb with a major inspiring impact on the emerging European pirate movement.

manimani
2006-06-30, 17:20
tg (2006-Jun-30)Well, imaginary or non-representative as it may be, the IDG Weekly Poll (http://www.idg.se/globalincludes/applikationer/veckans_fraga/showhistoryresult.asp?id=1876) indicates also nice support for Piratpartiet. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a big surprise. This is the first time the issue of legal filesharing has been politicized, and there is no precedent anywhere on how a huge population of tech-savvy filesharers will vote when given a political pro-p2p alternative. I suppose even a 10 % national support would be quite a political bomb with a major inspiring impact on the emerging European pirate movement.



Please. Just accept that the figures aren't even close to something like 10% at the moment. IDG is a technology magazine and has been mentioned several times earlier in this forum too, drawing our members there. As a contrast, a real opinion poll of the normal kind was done some week ago by the SIFO institute, in which PP got 0.0% of the votes. That's just ridiculously low, and in this forum two possible reasons were suggested as to why PP is invisible in the polls:



1) The pollers don't call mobile phones. Thus they kind of miss whole the younger generation. (But is that really the case, btw? Don't they have their subjects weighted into age groups etcetera?)



2) PP sympathizers care about their integrity and are less prone to answer polls generally, or calls from anonymous numbers.



Another way to estimate the number of sympathizers is through the number of party members. PP at this moment has as many members as Miljöpartiet, which is a member of the parliament atm with more than 4% of the votes. But you have to weigh in that PP's membership application procedure is comparatively simple, with a membership fee that's only symbolical (less than one dollar). And a sixth or so of the members are too young to vote in the upcoming election (although it's true that Miljöpartiet too includes the members of their youth organisation in their party member count).

tg
2006-06-30, 21:21
Do you happen to know if there are any conventional opinion polls underway? I guess we will see many of them as the election gets closer?

SM5POR
2006-07-01, 04:33
tg (2006-Jun-30)Do you happen to know if there are any conventional opinion polls underway? I guess we will see many of them as the election gets closer?

There sure are opinion polls; Synovate Temo (http://www.temo.se/Templates/Page____195.aspx) publishes one monthly, but Piratpartiet isn't visible by itself in it yet (it's hidden behind the "Others" label).

Marco
2006-07-01, 06:08
And all of those opinion meetings show same thing "others" are growing rapidly and getting more and more %



and to the orignial quesiton if pp got 30% it would be chaos in swedish politics and quite fun